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Let's finish up the meet with a positive week, shall we ? 

 I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #4 Indian Pride  Race 5 - #12 Decorated Ace


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Saratoga - 8/28 - Closing Week - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Hepcat

2.Roller Rolls On

3.Set to Music

#5 HEPCAT is a perfect example of why steeplechase racing is great. This West Virginia bred was winless in his first five starts over the flat ( beating just six home at average odds of 55-1 before hitting the board twice then being transferred to the hurdles, where he started things out with a 3rd place finish. Okay, he got the diploma in a WV state bred, bottom level maiden claiming event, Beyering a mere 27, and really, what was this one gonna do after that? Well, he;s now in the hands of a Hall of Fame trainer who's guided this one to a 3:1-2-0 mark, and now spots him in an allowance event, where he's 7:3-2-0 with maiden breakers returning in less than three dozen days. Looking good. #1 ROLLER ROLLS ON missed second by a neck when finishing third behind a runaway winner two weeks back, and did such despite a troubled trip. Sensible inclusion. #7 SET TO MUSIC is 4:0-1-1-1 in 2nd off the L/O tries and has partaken in the superfecta in nine of his last ten. As good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  2

1.Jump for Joy

2.Le Weekend

3.Mo Flash

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 JUMP FOR JOY has won four of six while partaking in the tri over 11 of her last dozen outings; 2:1-1-0 mark when breaking from the pine duly noted. #5 LE WEEKEND sure has been logging the miles of late, facing her 5th different starter in her last six calls to the post, and while not a spectacular animal, has sufficient enough numeros to include. #4 MO FLASH is 3 fer 7 at this trip & just 2 for 13 at other distances, and filly won by a bunch the only time she was entered at this level. 

 

Race  3

1.Dynamite Kitten

2.Classic Lady 

3.Bareeqa

#1 DYNAMITE KITTEN was fanned eight wide in a field with that many last time out, and T-Gaff is now replaced with Junior, who also had this one extremely wide the last time they were in tandem; mixed signals. #6 CLASSIC LADY will be slightly overbet because of the soft track turf form, but we'll still leave in the hopper because the outing three back happened to be her best over firm ground, so we'll toss into the cake batter. #3 BAREEQA has done well at this trp & over this strip, and could grind out a minor placing in a field without much punch.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-8-9-2(MTO)-3

 

Race  4 

1.Bye Bye Nicky

2.Pretty Zippy

3.Quasar

#5 BYE BYE NICKY tries the dirt for the first time, and is significantly better bred for it than the turf, and the collection of speed figures on the sod supersedes anything that anyone in the race has posted. That being said, this one lays over the entire field ( with one runner being a question mark ), and Magner is a tight 5:3-1-1 with maiden special weight dirt stock off breaks of 39 days or less ( 22-1 or lowah ) with mutuels of $9 & $5 x 2. No worse than 2nd for all you place punters. #2 PRETTY ZIPPY hasn't been seen in two Travers days, but three of 11 returnees from the bow won next time out ( from ten different races ), and the 389 Tommy tells us that this one deserves a looksie. #7 QUASAR seems solid enough for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 INDIAN PRIDE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 2-1?

 

Race  5

1.Tricky Tune

2.Bronco Sally

3.Alvernia

#6 TRICKY TUNE has been beset by two layoff lines after just as many starts, but showed appreciable improvement from the first start to the next, and although the numbers are a tad low, we're assuaged by the fact that new conditioner Amoss ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 3 when being handed a runner & spotting them on the lawn off breaks of 68-86 days ( $14 & $5 ). #4 BRONCO SALLY completed the triple in a nearly identical spot right here three weeks back, and MM owns a 13:4-3-1-2 ledger with second off the claim mid level turf routers who hit the board less than three fortnights back ( $7, $8, $6 & $20 ). #5 ALVERNIA couple perk up with today's initial stretchout and surface switch.  OFF TURF: 1-10-4-2(MTO)-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 DECORATED ACE

 

Race  6 

1.Candygramformongo

2.Blame the Cake

3.Chowda

The word is getting out on the #6 CANDYGRAMFORMONGO ( to wit, we've included the relevant 'Blazing Saddles' scene right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8ciVBQixpU ), as this one is purported to be a little bit of a runner, and good guy owner Al Gold has had a nice summer up here with a myriad of cleverly monikered runners. The As-Man is a jazzy 12:5-1-2-1 with those fitting ALL of this exact criteria ( 24-1 or less ) with the winners coming back $6, $48, $18 & $3 x 2. #8 BLAME THE CAKE should be no worse than 2nd here for all you place punters, based on the strong debut, solid Tomlinson figure, and addition of Lasix. For 3rd place... "WHO WANTS CHOWDA !!" ( What, you didn't think we would put the famous -- albeit gross -- "Chowda" clip from "The Family Guy" in here ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHUMaJphBdE )

 

Race  7

1.Coin the Phrase

2.Swirling Candy

3.Giggle Factory ( AE )

#8 COIN THE PHRASE is showing a few decent morning moves for the onset to her working life today, and has excellent breeding for this sorta deal. Barn not known for their prowess with firsters, so demand value. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the  #4 SWIRLING CANDY here, as there's a crisp gate move amidsta handful of ordinary workouts, and not only did this one go for more than six times the stud fee at auction earlier in the year, but is another w/ excellent bloodlines. Watch out, suckahs ! #14 GIGGLE FACTORY (AE) ( not to be confused with 'Giggles Flintstone'  ) needs some luck to make it into the body of the race, but adds Lasix after outrunning her odds in the bow, and may offer some value in this affair.  OFF TURF: 10-11(AE)-2-3-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.El Asesino

2.Smile Bryan

3.Dark Money

#1 EL ASESINO hasn't found the winner's circle in a year and 11 days, but has hit the board in both starts when breaking from the inside, and Diodoro is 6:3-0-2-1 with locally based allowance dirt dashers coming in off breaks of less tham 42 days at 13-1 or less ( 13 & $8 x 2 ). Mild selection. #6 SMILE BRYAN is a steady if unspectacular sort who has the all important race over the track. #2 DARK MONEY has posted career best #'s in back to back outings, and is protected against the claim despite being out of jail after the June 29th purchase. 

 

Race  9 

1.Andesite

2.Eagerly

3.Field Pass

We have three solid DRF Formulator stats in play for the day's feature, and as it's purdy late on Travers night, we'll get to 'em directly...  #7 ANDESITE: Cox ( dig it ) is a poyfect 4 fer 4 with second time starters/second time routers on the lawn who snagged the sheepskin 29-67 days ago & are beneath the 8-1 watermark ( $6, $9, $3 & $7 ). #5 EAGERLY: T.P. rolls off teh spool with second time starting ungraded turf stayers who hit the board first time out & are 8-1 or less ( $13, $10 & $11 x 2 ). #8 FIELD PASS: M.M. has a nice batting average with turf routers who got the diploma 25-67 days back & are 7-1 or <.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Abby Normal

2.Zip It Jess

3.Mz Seb Pat

#2 ABBY NORMAL was a bit blase' in the most recent, but the Belmont turf try three back was solid enough at 10-1, and we'll hope for a square price on thie one in the finale. #10 ZIP IT JESS hasn't been put back on the turf since the successful debut right here a bit over a year ago, and Jersey Joe comes up for the one mount. Interesting, and we may be inclined to switch our top two selections should the price be right. #4 MZ SEB PAT has completed the exacta in both turf dashes this year on firm ground and is eligible to rebound off the recent disappointment.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1-6-9-14(AE)

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    50-337       ( $380.80 )  Beatable Favorites  10-23 ( 43.5% )     Favorites Win %:  128-337 ( 38.0% )(As of Weds. morning)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-39         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:   12-39    ( 30.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-384  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 131-384 (34.1%)  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11595 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4180-11606  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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