KevinCoxItem

So we mixed things up a bit for the last two days to be more "pro" active than "re" active with how they soup up the tracks on major stakes days, and here were the results:

24:6-2-6 ( Higher win rate than normal ) with a $52.60 return on $48 bet.

We'll take it.

Thanks to all the many wonderful fans, readers and friends who took the time to stop and speak during the day. ( Hell, I even gave out a T-Shirt autograph -- with the body inside of it ! ) 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/25

 

Race  1

1.Highland Glory

2.Foreign Exchange

Strike Magic

Barclay Tagg has fashioned himself a decent enough meeting so far ( 15:2-2-1 ), and the winners aren't really what you would expect from this barn -- an off the turf stakes in the goo, and a first time starter with sizzling works. #5 HIGHLAND GLORY has been doing well in the mornings for today's initial foray, and happens to bring a 395 Tommy in tow as well. Sire was 3:2-0-2 going short, paternal grandsire won his only start doing the same, paternal granddam was 1 fer 2 at this dance, and the maternal grandmom was 3 for 4 in dirt dashes. Things to like. #6 FOREIGN EXCHANGE has fired off a bullet since the most recent and is 2nd time Lasix/2nd time dirt today. #3 STRIKE MAGIC is well bred for this deal & Jose is enticed to ride. 

 

Race  2

1.Oroscopo

2.Vehement

3.Point of Humor

#4 OROSCOPO hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but had a couple of decent running lines way back when, and now returns sans the shades and the tes-tee-klees. Could surprise if fully cranked up. #8 VEHEMENT has yet to miss the superfecta and makes all kinds of sense in this spot. #2 POINT OF HUMOR has outran his odds over his last troika ( something we always look at ) and cuts back while leaving the hood on the backside.  OFF TURF: 5-7-1-6-8

 

Race  3

1.Carom

2.Krewe Chief

3.Catcho En Die ( Arg )

#1 CAROM is a steady if unspectacular sort who goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today while drawing snugly. Meeeeekest of selections in a race not deserving of a $92,000 pot. #2 KREWE CHIEF finds himself at his lowest level to date and I s'pose needs to be left in the mix, no ? #3 CATCHO EN DIE (ARG) gets some much needed class relief after being trounced in his last quartet and gets the bug assigned. Who knows how his confidence is these days, tho.  OFF TURF: 3-2-6-4-1   NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 4 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  4 

1.Ramblin' Ma'am

2.Dazzling Speed

3.Ragtime Suzy

#6 RAMBLIN' MA'AM is a bit of an in and outer, but a first try against winners can always be forgiven, and filly makes her first try off the break. Meeeeeeeeeekest of selections in an impossible affair. #4 DAZZLING SPEED has posted back to back career best #'s, and followed those up with a sizzling gate move ten days ago. Watch out, suckahs ! #7 RAGTIME SUZY has a win & a showing from as many "turf to dirt" starts, and that's more than enough reason to include with this allotment. 

 

Race  5

1.Miss Mystique

2.Posse Needed 

3.Eye On Berlin

#4 MISS MYSTIQUE has twice as many wins as places & shows combined, so right off the bat, we like how this one seems to be able to find the line. That aside, it's good to see Kendrick ( aboard for the score two starts back ) return, and this is another one who rates a tepid nod in yet another heat where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #3 POSSE NEEDED has missed the super just one time in her 15 lifetime outings, and....and....ahhh, man, ain't that enough here? #1 EYE ON BERLIN is a fantasmical 8 for 16 @ the trip ( 2-17 otherwise ) and we like when this Mid Atlantic  turf dashers are confidently shipped northward.  OFF TURF: 5(MTO)-8-9-6-4

 

Race  6 

1.Lord Simba

2.Soul P Say

3.Gypsum Johnny

#3 LORD SIMBA is a lightly raced six year old who has excelled at this dx., and is paired with his 7th different starter over his last 8 calls to the starter ( and it's Mr. Cancel. who had a nice score in the Thursday nitecap ). Demand some value.  #1 SOUL P SAY missed by less than a length at this level two back and has hit the board in both 3rd off the L/O tries. Popular item at the claim box has been snagged in 3 of the last 4. #5 GYPSUM JOHNNY has done okay in 2nd off the break tries & is as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Blessingsofliberty ( AE )

2.Crack of Dawn ( AE ) 

3.More or Less ( AE )

#13 BLESSINGS OF LIBERTY (AE) showed zilch in the bow, but is in with a tag for the first time and Tyler sticks around for this son of the hot Constitution sire. Giant's Causeway on the bottom says to give this one a shot on the gramma. #12 CRACK OF DAWN (AE) may have finished dead last in the career starter, but lost by less than half'a dozen that day and one of three returnees from that afternoon came back to score next time out. #11 MORE OR LESS (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but should this Laure shipper make it into the body of the race, will be backed by substantial turf breeding, and will have a maturity advantage over most of the field.  OFF TURF: 1-5-3-11(AE)-12(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 2 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD SELECTIONS RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  8 

1.Our Braintrust

2.Bourbon War

3.Regally Irish

#2 OUR BRAINTRUST was heading in the right direction until the disaster in the Rebel, and although this one's turf breeding is just a tad below that of the sand, could pose a threat if able to get back to the penultimate start; Price play. #3 BOURBON WAR is the clear class of this affair and must be left in solely because of that. #6 REGALLY IRISH can last for a share.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-7-1

 

Race  9 

1.Fireball Shot

2.Felix In Fabula

3.Mo Gotcha

#5 FIREBALL SHOT shed that "jealous bridegroom" status in the most recent score, and while the race set up unbelievably for him that afternoon, sometimes when the light bulb comes on it can stay on for a while. We'll ride the hot hand at what should be a decent mutuel. #6 FELIX IN FABULA is an extremely consistent sort who is hard to chunk outta the tri. #1 MO GOTCHA is a touch light from a speed figure perspective but is bred for this trip and has been freshened up a touch by 'Miah. 

 

Race  10

1.Going to Temple

2.Trans Mississippi

3.Into Glamour ( AE )

#3 GOING TO TEMPLE has yet to finish in the first half of the field, but catches firm ground for just the second time and rates a puncher's chance in the week's finale. #7 TRANS MISSISSIPPI takes the biggest plunge in the biz and gets in light. #12 INTO GLAMOUR (AE) hasn't been loaded into the gate for quite some time, but ran solidly in the lone start off a break and has the eye cups affixed for the first time.   OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-4-3-2-1

  


Saratoga           ( Current ):    50-327       ( $380.80 )  Beatable Favorites  10-23 ( 43.5% )     Favorites Win %:  123-327 ( 37.6% )(As of Sunday morning) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-39         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:   12-39    ( 30.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-384  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 131-384 (34.1%)  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11595 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4180-11606  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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