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11 New York bred races on tap today, totaling more than $1.4 million in purses, and we're going to slightly alter our style of handicapping the next two days. Normally we'll readjust the Beyer speed figures for each entrant ( eliminating some horses in the process ) then follow that up by utilizing the DRF Formulator platform a bit to find some diamonds in the rough, but we're going to eschew the latter for the next two days. Why? Well, in recent years, they have made the track a freeway on big racing days ( and quite often the day before ) in an effort to have quick times and, ahem... "records" produced, and they've also been known to trim & roll the turf courses as well, while having the rails set at the spot with the best ground. This often leads to some head scratching results, where we feel we've wasted a lot of hours. What we're going to do is look at all those who make our first cut and focus on those who have excelled on extremely fast ( hard ) surfaces, particularly those with variants ( yes, we're going old school ) of less than 10. That doesn't necessarily mean they need the lead on the lawn, but will have to have performed well in that regards. With dirt runners, we'd definitely like to see some early zip as well as positive results.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/23 - New York Bred Day

 

Race  1

1.Tales I Winit ( AE )

2.Stretchthestory

3.Jen's Battle

#13 TALES I WINIT (AE) had a 6th best of 42 gate breeze down at Big Sandy for today's initial foray, and will have drawn well should she be able to draw in. Mild edge in a somewhat decipherable opener. #4 STRETCHTHESTORY ( second half of the uncoupled C-Squared entry ) worked in company with the above on August 2nd and went for three times the stud fee at auction just five months ago. If we like the above, why not this one? #7 JEN'S BATTLE nearly went all the way when given a clean start last time out, and is slightly better bred for the green than the brown. Could be tough if able to shake lose early on.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-9-1-2-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Catorat

2.Klickitat

3.Crazy Life

#2 CATORAT came along strongly to secure the place bread when trying the gramma for the first time, and did such at boxcar odds. The adjusted number earned from that day is comparable to several others signed on, but this one may be overlooked because of the low percentage connections. #1 KLICKITAT hung up a career best # in his first start off a seven month L/O, and could be rolling late if there's a hot pace up front #3 CRAZY LIFE has hit the board in both starts this year, and goes on the lawn with blinks for the first time. Tough to exclude, especially after being "wrestled back" in the most recent.  OFF TURF: 1A(MTO)-3-8-5-7

 

Race  3

1.Kid Is Frosty

2.Newly Minted

3.Behind the Couch

#6 KID IS FROSTY has essentially improved with each passing start, has yet to finish out of the money, and has a 4:1-1-1 mark on tracks with a variant less than 10. Look for Irad to gun and cross over early on. #2 NEWLY MINTED had her unblemished record sullied a bit when burning up some baccala at 4 to 5 back in June, but won convicingly on  atrack with a variant of 4 just prior to that. Leaving beneath as Jose Lezcano is on a 2 for 34 run over the last ten days. #5 BEHIND THE COUCH finished a couple of placings behind our secondary selection in their last soiree', and is eligible to hit the board once again.

 

Race  4 

1.Three Jokers

2.Lord Camden

3.Hold My Call

We're focusing on the top two for all our rolling action. #9 THREE JOKERS ( "Jokerrrr.....Jokerrrrr....and a triple !!" Yes, we've given you a clip from that old time game show, "The Joker's Wild" right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGRldCqVNxM ) started out her worktab with a crisp 36 3/5th's move in Elmont on the 26th of May, then Terranova kept this one at an even keel for the next octet of moves. They may have been pointing towards this race once the second condition book came out, because the gate move last Friday really points him out. Dam was 6 for 14 in dirt dashes ( 216K ), sire was 1 for 1 doing the same ( a Grade 1 ), paternal grandsire won his only start at this trip, paternal granddam was 2:0-1-0-1 going short on the sand, maternal granddam won 7 of 16 dancing to this music ( banking more than half'a mil ), and this one is a half to Funny Guy ( "What am I, a clown?" ) who was 2-6 in dirt sprints ( 185G ). We're on our 6th line here, and y'all know what that means... #4 LORD CAMDEN posted a solid figaro in the bow and could show improvement second time out. #10 HOLD MY CALL draws well & brings in tow the highest Tommy in the lot.

 

Race  5

1.Fifty Five

2.Munchkin Money

3.Held Accountable

#1 FIFTY FIVE has partaken in the triple in 18 of 19 lifetime starts, is 10:5-1-4 at the trip, 5:2-2-0 when starting from the pine, and owns a 4:2-1-1 mark on turf courses with a variant of less than 10. Logical. #6 MUNCHKIN MONEY owns that nice type of "declining" record which we've grown to love, as it signifies that this gal knows where the line is. Gal overcame a lot to get the job done in the most recent, and has an honest 4:1-1-1 ledger on low variant turf strips. #7 HELD ACCOUNTABLE won first time out ( on the sod ), but then didn't touch the stuff until nearly ten months later. The result that day left a lot to be desired, but it came after a long break in the action and she smacked into the starting apparatus that day. We'll give her another shot over the stuff.  OFF TURF: 6-8(MTO)-7-2-5(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-3.

 

Race  6 

1.Call Me Harry

2.Brockmoninoff

3.Red Zinger

Difficult race to decipher here so tread lightly. #12 CALL ME HARRY won at first asking right here 40 days ago, and did such at 16-1 over a hard track ( variant of 7 ). Draws nicely once again, and two of six returnees from that day got their photos taken next time out ( from four different races ) with an average Beyer improvement of 5.5. points. #1 BROCKMONINOFF got the job done in his lone "2nd off the bench" foray ( 9 var. ) and could pose a treat if able to catch a flyer. #4 RED ZINGER has missed the board but once, and who are we to think otherwise today?  OFF TURF: 12-4-5-8(MTO)-9

 

Race  7

1.My Italian Rabbi

2.Fierce Lady

3.Violent Point

Luis Saez simply outrode Javy a month ago when #6 MY ITALIAN RABBI bested #5 FIERCE LADY by a honker in the Stillwater, and 'Miah charge draws outside that foe once again. Would love to see if the top choice can outbreak 'Lady today and cross over to the rail, as not only do we feel the inside will be golden, but if that comes to fruition, then you'e compelling Castellano to employ unfamiliar tactics with a young runner. However, if speed is the flavor of the day, then slightly rating this one may end up in a fruitless pursuit. Should be a fun race ! #1 VIOLENT POINT put it all together with a wire job in the goo on 7/17, and can land a share.

 

Race  8 

1.Listentoyourheart

2.City Man

3.Bull of Bayern

#9 LISTENTOYOURHEART is but a nose shy of a perfect 2 for 2 mark, with the score coming at 16-1 over a quick track with a variant of 7. Manny man will endeavor to perform the killer crossover today aboard a runner who is still eschewing Lasix. When you consider that just ONE other runner -- #1 BULL OF BAYERN -- in here has ever led at the quarter or a half ( our 3rd selection ), that increases this one's chances exponentially. #3 CITY MAN came from the back of the pack to win going away over this strip on the 18th of July, and did such over a glib surface ( variant of 6 ). 

 

Race  9 

1.Mo Maverick

2.Voodoo Song

3.Dot Matrix

#5 MO MAVERICK has a boatload of speed & is eligible to go all the way if #7 VOODOO SONG ( who has blinkers added ) decides to settle and rate a bit beneath new pilot in Jose Ortiz. #8 DOT MATRIX completed the triple in his lone 3rd off the shelf attempt on the gramma. In a bit of an anomaly, this one has broken from the outside but once, and that outing resulted in a tally.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-5-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  10

1.Daddy Knows

2.Bankit

3.Not That Brady

#1 DADDY KNOWS is a steady if unspectacular sort who got his Polaroid taken in his lone dirt route ( when going from one turn to two ) and draws snugly in today's featured event. #2 BANKIT is a salty sort who has excelled in these state bred events ( 7:3-1-1 compared to a 5:0-2-0 mark otherwise ) and has done nicely for Santana. #7 NOT THAT BRADY has been ITM in two of three routes & makes his 3rd start off the break today. 

 

Race  11

1.Mr. Vincent 

2.Wacky Pal

3.Curlin's Legacy

#10 MR. VINCENT is third off the hiatus today and finished third two starts back when sitting just off the pace. That may work to his advantage today, as he'll have ample time ( long run into the first turn ) to cross over today and possibly monitor the situation being set by the #2 WACKY PAL. That one is obviously the clear cut favorite, given the drop and figs, but we're not a big fan of taking quitters at short odds; We'll be using the the rollers, but will slide underneath right here. #11 CURLIN'S LEGACY's second best performance came in a 3rd off the shelf try, and may plod along for a share.  OFF TURF: 5-4-9-13(MTO)-12

 


Saratoga           ( Current ):    44-303       ( $328.10 )  Beatable Favorites  9-22   ( 40.9% )     Favorites Win %:  111-303  ( 36.6% )(As of Friday morning)

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Belmont Spring     ( Final ):    90-447      ( $697.60 )  Beatable Favorites  6-33 ( 18.2% )      Favorites Win %:   172-447 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring   ( Final ):    32-110      ( $322.60 )  Beatable Favorites   1-4  ( 25.0% )      Favorites Win %:    39-110  ( 35.5% )

Aqueduct  Winter ( Final ):     73-374     ( $490.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 7-23 ( 30.4 % )     Favorites Win %:   150-374 ( 40.1% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):     5-39         ( $54.20 )     Beatable Favorites: 0-3    ( 0.0% )       Favorite's Win %:   12-39    ( 30.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2019 Final ) 62-384  ( $555.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 131-384 (34.1%)  +/-: -26.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568        ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-9 (All Final):2258-11020 ($18,829.30) Beatable Favorites : 318-1148( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4062-11127 ( 36.5% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.7% takeout ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2343-11595 ($19648,50)  Beatable Favorites : 333-1216( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 4180-11606  ( 36.0% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.4% takeout


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