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As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #11 Munchkin Money  Race 9 - #7 Santo Antonio


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Aqueduct - 12/7

 

Race  1

1.Alrahaal

2.House Limit

3.Bad Guy

We were unable to lop off any of this septet at first glance, so tread lightly. #6 ALRAHAAL was a dead game and well clear runner up first time outta the box for Kiaran, and homebred is protected against the claim this afternoon for the followup. Apprentice gets the assignment as Saez plying his trade down in Hallandale Beach. #2 HOUSE LIMIT bested more than half the field in the overture and has fired off a quartet of bullets since then ( most likely wit Lasix, which is part of the package this afternoon ). Pre-layoff pilot returns, which is always encouraging. #4 BAD GUY is rapidly approaching professional maiden status, but we'll toss beneath, as he's hit the board in half of his dirt starts.

 

Race  2

1.No Distortion

2.Alright Alright

3.Saratoga Heater

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #7 NO DISTORTION was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in a similar spot about three weeks ago, and is a sensational 7:3-0-3 when starting from the outside slot ( 24:3-4-1 otherwise ). #2 ALRIGHT ALRIGHT was all out to get up by a lip in this race on 11/14, and the runner up from that day came back to win at the $12,500 level, increasing his Beyer from a 76 to an 82. Note the 5:3-2-0 ledger when beginning from the innermost three slots ( compared to just a 13:3-3-0 mark  from the four hole on out ). #3 SARATOGA HEATER hasn't been seen in half a year, but is 4:1-0-2-1 off "true" layoffs.

 

Race  3

1.Blushing Justine

2.Emerald Quality

3.Formal Event

Once again, we won't be using any other than this troika for all our bets. #1 BLUSHING JUSTINE has been in the rear with the gear in the last duet, but we always go back three starts with our studies, and the October 19th effort is enough reason to use in the God awful race. #9 EMERALD QUALITY has closed out the tri in two straight, and lone score came from the outside. #3 FORMAL EVENT closed out the exacta in a strung out field last time out and has done her best work right here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Princess Pinky

2.Abraxan

3.Diamond Princess

This appears to be another straightforward race for us. #9 PRINCESS PINKY has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but expensive ( $275,000 ) auction purchase has improved with each start, and Double D has done purdy well for this clan. #1 ABRAXAN won't be worse than 2nd here, given the solid two outings to date. #4 DIAMOND PRINCESS was better in the second start than the first, and as she isn't particularly well bred for the green, we wouldn't be surprised to see improvement off the dirt overture -- especially w/blinkers now in the mix.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  5

1.Forever Changed

2.Pascha Pascha

3.Tradeable

We'll blast off with a 3-2-1 triple here... #3 FOREVER CHANGED was a convincing maiden winner when having Lasix added about a month ago, and although a runner can sometimes regress in the second start after an equipment/medication change, there are no world beaters signed on. Repeat well within reach. #2 PASCHA PASCHA has hit the board in 4 of 5 and tries state breds for the first time this afternoon. #1 TRADEABLE has been ambitiously spotted in the last two, but gets some class relief today while shedding some weight.

 

Race  6 

1.Ribbonite

2.My Roxy Girl

3.Cartwheel

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em without any frills. #8 RIBBONITE: 25% 'Miah is 5 for 12 with 2nd off the L/O optional dirt stock who scored in their most recent, and has a $3.69 ROI with that sampling. #4 MY ROXY GIRL has always been a favorite of ours, as she tries hard each and every time, and it was good to see her get back into the winner's circle last time out. Friedman only wins with 8% of his stock, but is a crisp 8:3-3-0 with dirt dashers who won 20-50 days ago & are 12-1 or less ( $15, $11, $9 ). Mare is 9:4-4-0 right here & 12:0-5-2 over other strips. ( We reserve the right to amend our selections once the odds come out ). #2 CARTWHEEL: Hennig ( from a limited survey ) is 2-6 with locally based optional dirt sprinters in the 36-72 day range.  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Pivotal Connection ( GB )

2.Bridaled Temper

3.Mitchell Road

#1 PIVOTAL CONNECTION (GB) can be forgiven the two mediocre off the turf events since arriving in the States, but the lone turf try yielded an honest 78.8 adjusted number, and did so over a course labeled as "good". 15% Mott is a saucy 6 fer 17 with allowance turf stayers off breaks of 10-20 days ( 10-1 or lower ) and has a positive ROI with 'em. #3 BRIDALED TEMPER has finished second in three straight & five of eight; who are we to rock that boat? #6 MITCHELL ROAD ( second half of the uncoupled entry with out top choice ) hasn't seen the scene since March fourteen, but will take them for as far as she can with Stone ( dangerous on the front end in turf routes ) aboard.  OFF TURF: 11-5-7(MTO)-8(MTO)-2(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 MUNCHKIN MONEY

 

Race  8 

1.Annie Rocks

2.Piedi Bianchi

3.Tanya's Gem

We're not jamming on this race, so be careful.  #5 ANNIE ROCKS is 5:1-1-1 when going from green to brown and is 1 for 4 at the trip. Timid selection. #2 PIEDI BIANCHI went from zero to hero to win a restricted stakes event in the Hoosier state, and if you can eliminate the Alabama and B.C. deals, then this miss has a pretty good overall body of work. Hard to dismiss. #4 TANYA'S GEM owns a 5:1-0-2-1 when making this surface transition and may spice things up a bit.

 

Race  9 

1.Blue Skies Forever

2.Clonedsimmard

3.Local Edition

#11 BLUE SKIES FOREVER showed zippo in the last, but with maidens we go anywhere in their past performances ( they're maidens for a reason, ya know ), and this one bested half the field in a very similar spot up @ Toga at 55-1, and did so despite not having the wonder drug coursing through his veins. Fella gets in with a feather today and could pop back in the land of New York bred maiden claimers. #3 CLONEDSIMMARD has essentially improved over his last five calls to the post and gets a positive jockey switch here. #10 LOCAL EDITION had the eye cups affixed in last, and gamely procured 20% of the pot in this race 16 days back; deserving favorite.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 SANTO ANTONIO will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-10 with second off the L/O maiden claiming stock on this strip who missed the board in last.

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   28-179   ( $276.30 )   Beatable Favorites     7-22  ( 31.8% )  Favorites Win %: 70-187   ( 37.4% )
 

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  12-73     ( $99.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 32-73     ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 57-361   ( $494.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 121-361  ( 33.5% )  +/-: -31.5% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2002-9760 ($16,760.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3584-9855 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2087-10328 ($17,579.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3747-10442( 35.9% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017